How unlikely was Tom Brady's game-winning pass to Kenbrell Thompkins? Unlikely enough to make this Win Probability chart for the Saints look like it got stabbed in the heart with a spear.
After Brady missed Julian Edelman with 30 seconds left leaving the Pats stranded at the NO 26, the Saints WP was up to 0.99—the win was virtually assured. With 24 seconds left, it actually shot all the way down to 0.58 after a completion, before recovering to 0.78 with 11 seconds left. And then Brady hit Thompkins and the Saints' needed a miracle.
Win Probability is calculated based on score, time remaining, down and distance, and distance to go. It updates live, so you can see how all the games from the week played out over at Advanced NFL Stats, play by play. And plays like this are what make sports, and following stats, so fun. We can talk about probability forever, but the constant threat of the improbable, and its ability to shake up well laid plans, is impossible to wipe out of sports.